Kickstarter Guesstimates

Good Morning Friends! I am about to take you down a rabbit hole, because yesterday without really meaning to… I absolutely dug one. I am not exactly sure what causes my brain to travel the pathways it does, but like so many things in my life, it started out simple enough.
I had seen some news scroll across my feed about Ashes of Creation and I logged into Kickstarter to try and remember during what phase of testing I would be getting access. For those who are curious, we are in Alpha 1 still and have Alpha 2 and two phases of closed beta before I get access. Granted I knew I was backing a slow-moving horse when I chipped money in to fund this project, but what I did not remember is that every single project has an estimated delivery date associated with it. These are wildly inaccurate, but it planted a seed in my brain as to exactly HOW wildly inaccurate they were.
This of course led to me pulling a google sheet, logging the projected dates for all twenty-five software projects that I have backed since the launch of Kickstarter. After that, I spent the next hour googling to find release dates that map up to each product giving me the above table. I guess I should talk a bit about my methodology because I was trying to keep things simple I logged the month and year for each project and then did some “datediff” math to figure out how many months late a given project was when it released. There were a few projects that have never been released, and for those, I have currently plugged in June 2022 even though I know it is equally wildly inaccurate. Of those projects, one had an updated release date so I used that instead. I get that my methodology is not perfect but this is just to create some general trends that we can talk about.

Abandonware

Riding the way of “pretty Minecraft” games was TUG, an open-world survival builder MMORPG by Nerd Kingdom. TUG stood for The Untitled Game, and honestly, it looked really interesting to me because at the time it was trying to do something that nobody had really pulled off. In the years to follow the launch of this project, however, it has been done over and over again and pulled off successfully. To date, this project is 89 months late based on the original estimate, and the last update to the Kickstarter was in March of 2017. We know this is a dead project but no one has been willing likely for legal reasons to actually just come out and say it. In the comments, you can even see someone going as far as trying to start a class action lawsuit against the company. I gambled some money and I lost, and I am largely okay with that.

Best In Class

On the other end of the spectrum, you have Mages of Mystralia from Borealys Games that not only met the original Kickstarter delivery estimate but beat it by one month. Granted this is maybe not the fairest example because before the Kickstarter launched, I had already played a very polished demo of the game at Pax South. However, I feel like they need to get credit here for beating the Kickstarter estimation game and actually being able to deliver on a project ahead of time. I also feel like we need to give credit to the mobile game Cockatilt and The Wonderful 101 Remastered which were both released within a month of the original estimate which would simply account for the natural shift in a schedule.

The Worst Offenders

Of the games that have actually been released, the worst offender in the delay is Crowfall. This is not shocking given that MMORPGs notoriously take about twice as long to produce as the original estimates. By the time Crowfall was officially released in 2021 it was 55 months later than the first estimate, so just over 4 and a half years late. Granted there is part of me that would prefer that the game still is in testing so that maybe it could turn into a game that I was actually interested in playing. It was a game with some interesting concepts that coalesced into something that I was wholly uninterested in and I am not sure I have logged into the final released version. That is part of the risk of backing a project that is only funded on some pretty prose and a few bits of concept art.

The Full List

I realize that I posted an image of a spreadsheet, but for sake of those with “old eyes” like myself, I am going to actually share the information in text form. Here is the full list of the twenty-five projects I have backed throughout the years sorted ascending based on “months late”. If you are so inclined I have shared the raw spreadsheet here.
  • Mages of Mystralia – 1 Month Early
  • Cockatilt – 1 Month Late
  • The Wonderful 101: Remastered – 1 Month Late
  • Ravaged – 3 Months Late
  • Warmachine Tactics – 3 Months Late
  • Hamsterdam – 5 Months Late
  • Mask of the Rose: A Fallen London Romance – 5 Months Late – Projected Release Date
  • TemTem – 6 Months Late
  • Sunless Skies – 8 Months Late
  • Wasteland 2 – 9 Months Late
  • Divinity: Original Sin 2 – 9 Months Late
  • Amplitude – 10 Months Late
  • Battle Chasers: Nightwar – 10 Months Late
  • Battletech – 11 Months Late
  • Dead State – 12 Months Late
  • Dreamfall Chapters: The Longest Journey – 19 Months Late
  • InSomnia the Ark – 22 Months Late
  • Boyfriend Dungeon – 25 Months Late
  • Torment: Tides of Numenera – 26 Months Late
  • Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night – 27 Months Late
  • HEX TCG MMO – 30 Months Late – Now Defunct but did release
  • Ashes of Creation – 42 Months Late so far – No Release Date
  • Crowfall – 55 Months Late
  • Curse of the Deadwood – 66 Months Late – No Release Date
  • TUG – 89 Months Late – No Release DateNo Updates since 2017

The Kickstarter Gamble

I think one of the challenges with Kickstarter is the interface and the way that the project pages are designed to make it seem like you are purchasing a product. In actuality, you are gambling on an idea that someone out there has, and hoping that maybe just maybe it comes to fruition. You are investing in the future of a product, and like with all investments… sometimes things go off the rails completely and you lose all of your money. For the most part, I have done pretty well thus far with my video game Kickstarter, though the long-tailed nature of them has led me to plunk my money on the line far less often than I did in those heady early days. The first project I ever funded was Wasteland 2 in 2012, and the last project that I funded was Mask of the Rose: A Fallen London Romance in 2022. The last one I am not even sure I am that interested in the game, but wanting to help support more Fallen London nonsense to exist in the world because it is a phenomenal setting. Granted my sample size is small with only twenty-five games backed over a ten-year span, but there is definitely a trend toward games coming in late. Given that the average on my list was just shy of twenty months late, and the median was ten months late… you really need to take that estimated delivery date as the complete nonsense that it really is. If you are backing a Kickstarter you are gambling on the future of a franchise and the hope that maybe just maybe someday you will get to play it. Does this impact my likelihood to back a game on Kickstarter? Somewhat to be honest, but I had already reached that conclusion before looking at the data. The types of Kickstarters that I now back are less about me wanting the product and more about me wanting to help support and fund the product. For example, I thought Boyfriend Dungeon was a worthy cause and was a game that should exist in the world, and even though I have yet to play it… I was more than happy to plunk some money on the line knowing at some point I would walk away with a discount copy of the game. Other games like Crowfall or Ashes of Creation were essentially just me getting a cheap copy of the game and a space in line for the alpha/beta process if they turned out to be phenomenal. There are folks who have an ax to grind with how inaccurate these estimates end up being, but I am not one of them. I just abused it for a blog post. The post Kickstarter Guesstimates appeared first on Tales of the Aggronaut.

Revisiting New World

Good Morning Friends. I regret to inform you that there is no Mixtape Monday this week because I have not felt like fiddling with them over the weekend. I have two that are in progress but neither of them is really ready for primetime. I am playing the “is it allergies or is it covid” game right now as I had to attend high school graduation on Friday and just based on the statistics, more than one person in that crowd was a carrier. However, at the same time, the cottonwood is in full bloom which I am deathly allergic to, so more than likely… it is just allergies given a “general awful feeling” and “lethargy” are my only real symptoms so far. Aligning to my already strange mental state, I apparently booted up New World over the weekend and spent a little bit of time roaming around it.
My Character now apparently lives on Valhalla and I am not sure how many merges have taken place between our origins on Minda and the first merge with Frislandia. Whatever the case it appears that team purple is outgunned, though last night they did manage to take Everfall. In truth, a sequence of changes has more or less made it that I no longer give a shit about the faction balance. At some point the costs of teleports were reduced significantly, and also no longer take your inventory into account so if you are so inclined you can bop around the map at will. The other significant quality of life improvement that I noticed was the fact that there is now “peaceful regeneration” which turns on quick life recovery any time you are out of combat. I would say MOST of the food that I went through was trying to regenerate my health so I could get back into the action, and now there is just a buff that does that for me.
As far as combat in general, as heavy armor, sword, and shield tank… I feel much sturdier than I was previously. I need to do some more tests here but I spent a bit of time running around in Edengrove and fared far better than previously against everything there. I was also able to easily take single pull elites in Shattered Mountain and even managed a few two pulls. Like I said I need to get out into the world and try a few of my haunts that I was clearing regularly when the hatchet bug was in place, to determine just how viable open-world farming is again. If nothing else it was fun to do a good number of the lower level towers in Edengrove for materials.
I made a quick visit to Adjorjan and he still appears to be dropping decent stuff, though I am not sure what level of watermark he is capable of dropping. I only stuck around for a single kill but I got a purple bow around 550, but also did not get a watermark upgrade from him because there is now an animation that plays when that happens. As far as watermarking there seem to be a few reasonable ways to get daily progress namely in the way of bags that drop containing diamond gypsum. The other big change I noticed is that the bottom has fallen out in some of the rare materials. When I last played Void Ore which is a rare drop from Orichalcum, was selling in the neighborhood of 10k gold each. I just bought five of them on buy orders for 150 gold each. Unfortunately, I am nowhere near the skill level required to make a full set of Voidbent armor, but I had contemplated trying to convert my cash stockpiles into armoring levels.
The community seems to be hopping in spite of being MUCH smaller than it was and seemingly gone is the era of the “2k buy in” for a group. I am not entirely certain what quality of life changes lead to this but so far the game seems to be much more playable than it was when I last left. I doubt I will be spending a ton of time in the game, and the crafting system in its current state still feels awful… but maybe just maybe it has found its niche and can slowly start moving the needle in the positive direction. New World was a really fun game up until the point it abruptly stopped being fun, so a few tweaks here or there might be enough to save it. I will of course let you know if I continue to play from time to time and how that process is going. The post Revisiting New World appeared first on Tales of the Aggronaut.

AggroChat #388 – Bel Does a Murder

Featuring:  Ammosart, Ashgar, Belghast, Grace, Kodra, Tamrielo, and Thalen
Last week was mothers day and travel and such led to us not being able to record a show.  As is often the case we ended up with a long list of topics and not enough time to address them all.  First, we talk about the curious intersection of Pachinko and Roguelikes and more specifically Peglin and Roundgaurd…  and its pinball-focused cousin Yoku’s Island Express.  Thalen shares with us the joy of the Squirrelgirl Podcast.  We talk a bit about the odd but obvious cross-over event between EVE Online and Microsoft Excel.  We dive a bit into Guild Wars 2 and talk about how apparently Bel is actually doing PVP now, not just WvW.  We also congratulate Kodra on getting his Skyscale mount and talk a bit about the long grinds.  From there Thalen discusses the DIE Pen and Paper system.  From there we talk a bit about the recent streamer bans for running addons and the whole debacle causing rifts in the community.  Lastly, we talk a bit about bringing back the AggroChat Game of the Month…  sorta…  because we are going to all play Citizen Sleeper and then record a show about it.

Topics Discussed

  • The intersection of Pachinko and Roguelikes
    • Peglin
    • Roundguard
    • Yoku’s Island Express
  • Squirrel Girl Podcast
  • EVE Online and Excel Crossover
  • Guild Wars 2
    • Someone replaced Bel and is doing PVP
    • Kodra gets a Skyscale
  • DIE the Pen and Paper Game
  • Final Fantasy XIV Addon Debacle
  • AggroChat Game of the Month Returning Sorta
    • Citizen Sleeper Show Soon
The post AggroChat #388 – Bel Does a Murder appeared first on Tales of the Aggronaut.

MMORPG Pause Button

One of the challenges of being an adult and playing an MMORPG is that from time to time I have to step away from the screen, and because of the online nature there is no “pause” feature. I cannot count the number of times I have needed to step away to deal with some crisis, only to return dead and need to resurrect and find my way back to whatever it was that I was doing. “Hang on, I need to get to a save space” is probably something that my wife is exceptionally tired of hearing. Guild Wars 2 however has a feature that I wish EVERY MMORPG had, and that is a way to teleport quickly to someplace safe… and then return to exactly where you were in the normal game so you can return to whatever it was that you were doing. The thing is… this isn’t just a paid feature available only from premium VIP passes, but something you can do with the base features easily. This morning I am going to talk a bit about each of the ways that you can teleport out of the action to hit a bank or vendor, and then rapidly teleport back to where you were in the world.

PVP Lobby – Heart of the Mists

Heart of the Mists is a zone that you can enter while waiting on a PVP Match to start, and also allows you access to your PVP-only gear profiles and build information. It can also be used as a rapid method of getting to a bank, vendor, trading post, or even getting a free teleport to Lion’s Arch. The coolest part about this is that I believe it is available at level one, and exiting this area through the PVP menu will teleport you right back to where you left the world so long as it is someplace still accessible. If you teleport while in the middle of a story instance, it will teleport you back to wherever you started that story instance.

WvW Lobby – Edge of the Mists

Calling Edge of the Mists this a lobby is a bit of a lie, but when you first teleport into it you are placed in a safe space where no players can harm you. This is nowhere near as feature-rich as Heart of the Mists as there is no bank access, but you can still teleport to Lion’s Arch and still have the functionality to return to the last location in Tyria.

Guild Hall – Location and Amenities Vary

There are currently four different guild halls that are available to players, with two located in Maguma, one in the Crystal Desert, and then one in Cantha. The Cantha guild hall called the Isle of Reflection is the one pictured above. They all function effectively the same and if you exit the guild hall via the guild interface, it will take you right back to where you were last located in Tyria. What you have access to in a given guild hall is wildly dependent upon how much of the restoration process your guild has completed. At the bare minimum however you should have access to vendors and can access your bank through the scribe station crafting machine. Using this as your fast escape to safety has the side benefit of maybe letting you bump into other members of your guild.

VIP Lounge Passes

There are a number of VIP lounge areas that are scattered around the world which require some sort of access pass in order to enter them. The passes come in two variants: a two-week pass and a permanent access pass. You can get some of the two-week passes by playing the game, but the permanent ones are generally only available on the Black Lion Store and cost 1000 gems each. While there are currently ten available in the game, there are only three that can function as a way to return to the spot you were last at in Tyria, and as such there are only three that really matter. I personally spend most of my time in Mistlock Sanctuary which is pictured above, and generally speaking, is almost always full of players doing whatever business they need. Essentially it is a complete replacement for all of the amenities that you might need from Lion’s Arch. If I need to use the Mystic Forge or do some Crafting… I teleport to Mistlock and then can immediately return to whatever I was doing previously. Since so many people in our guild have Mistlock it also doubles as a sort of unofficial guild hall. I have this pass sitting in my shared account inventory which gives me easy access to it from any character.
If you do not have the gems to spend on a Mistlock pass, or it is currently not available on the market (which happens regularly as they rotate them out), then probably my favorite of the other options is the PVP lobby. Once you unlock the portals you can teleport quickly to the market area and do whatever business you might need to do before returning to the world. Sadly none of the free options have crafting machines, but it at least will give you a way to “pause” the game and go someplace safe whenever you need to unexpectedly afk. I wish EVERY game had something like this. Most games have the ability to teleport somehow, but it also means that when you come back to the screen… you will have to go through some level of nonsense to get back to where you were. This is quick and convenient and I love it so much. The post MMORPG Pause Button appeared first on Tales of the Aggronaut.